Former S&DS student, Jennie Miller ‘23, is presenting her senior thesis work from Spring 2023 titled “Real-time Closed-Form Set and Match Win Probability Estimates for Women’s Grand Slam Tennis” at this month’s US Olympic and Paralympic Committee’s Data, Analytics, and Technology Forum.
Bio: Jennie is currently a Data Scientist at Figma. Before joining Figma, she was a Data Science intern for two summers at Meta/Facebook, where she worked on product strategy and Responsible AI. Jennie graduated summa cum laude from Yale University with a B.S. in Statistics and Data Science, for which her senior thesis involved modeling win probabilities for Women’s Grand Slam tennis matches. Jennie is a previously nationally ranked squash player, and she loves racquet sports, including squash, tennis, pickleball, and badminton.
Title: Real-time Closed-Form Set and Match Win Probability Estimates for Women’s Grand Slam Tennis
Abstract: Our project takes a unique approach to modeling win probabilities for women’s Grand Slam tennis tournament matches. We calculate closed-form probabilities for all possible ways in which matches can end in addition to predicting their winners overall. All probabilities are calculated at the pre-match level and then recurringly updated in-match based on real-time results. This approach fills gaps in the literature and allows us to visualize the most up-to-date exact predictions at any given moment for both the winner and outcome of each match.